Finds an Overall Unit Sales Increase of 10.3% in 2013 over 2012,
Fuel Use Grew by an Estimated 14.3% to Some 400 Million GGEs
NGVAmerica has advised members of very preliminary findings from its survey of OEMs and other providers of natural gas vehicles regarding 2013 sales and the U.S. NGV fleet. Based on a preliminary analysis of more than 25 companies’ data submittals, the U.S. saw 10.3% growth in overall NGVs in 2013, NGVA says, with solid gains in light and heavy duty OEM sales.
Based on fuel use estimates by vehicle type, overall transportation natural gas use increased an estimated 14.3% over 2012 to approximately 400 million gasoline gallon equivalents.
“This is double the fuel use estimated in a 2005 NGVAmerica report, in which a comprehensive station survey and verification analysis tallied 92,000 NGVs and 200-million-GGE fuel use, a benchmark that took nearly forty years of slow but steady growth to achieve,” states the NGVA member newsletter circulated late Sunday.
Among the highlights, the association reports,
- In 2012, approximately 17,450 new NGVs were sold in the U.S., comprising just over 8,300 retrofits/repowers and about 9,150 OEM vehicles. New vehicles included OEMs’ light and heavy duty factory-built vehicles and small volume manufacturer (SVM) retrofits/repowers of existing engines/vehicles, regardless of their original model year;
- Of that 2012 total, slightly less than 11,000 were light duty sedans, pick-ups and vans. Approximately 1,100 were medium duty shuttles, step-vans and work trucks, and some 5,450 were heavy duty freight trucks, buses, refuse trucks and other vocational trucks;
- Attrition of older light, medium and heavy duty vehicles in 2012 was estimated at 7,500 to 8,000 vehicles resulting in a net increase of about 9,500 to 10,000 NGVs on U.S. roads for a total inventory of approximately 130,000 in 2012.
- Attrition was estimated based on expected life expectancy of natural gas transit buses deployed from 1998 to 2001, scrapping of some of the earliest refuse trucks first deployed by Waste Management and other early adopters in the 2000 to 2003 timeframe (and now likely sent to the boneyards after their “second life”), and projected end-of-life of a number of light duty cars, pick-ups and vans, and medium duty work trucks and shuttles deployed between 1996–2004;
- In 2013, approximately 19,250 new NGVs were sold, comprising approximately 6,400 retrofits/repowers and about 12,850 OEM vehicles;
- Of that 2013 total of all OEM and SVM sales, an estimated 10,425 were light duty vehicles, about 1,450 were medium duty and about 7,375 were heavy duty; and
- Attrition of older vehicles in 2013 was estimated at about 7,500 for a net gain of 11,750 NGVs on U.S. roads and a total U.S. NGV inventory of approximately 142,000 vehicles.
NGVA’s 400 million GGE estimate for 2013 is based “on extrapolations of previously collected vehicle inventory and fuel use data, supplemented by the latest new vehicle additions and attrition estimates.”
Late-Year Deployment of Heavy Vehicles
“This is a 14.3% increase over 2012 estimated fuel use,” NGVA says. “The discrepancy between the 9.0% increase in net NGV inventory and 14.3% increase in fuel use may be attributed to the net increase in medium and heavy duty vehicles, tempered by the number of heavy duty vehicles that were deployed late in 2013 and thus had little impact on 2013 fuel use.”
NGVA says that additional analysis is underway and more metrics will be reported after data sets are evaluated to assure the confidentiality of each individual company’s information. “Once analysis is complete, NGVAmerica will publish a more detailed analysis, distribute it to our members and make it available on our access-controlled Members Center. An executive summary of key findings will be posted on our web site and distributed to the press.”
NGVAmerica says it will include a high-level summary of this information in the opening general session of the upcoming NTEA Green Truck Summit being held in conjunction with the NTEA Work Truck Show in Indianapolis March 4-7.
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Source: NGVAmerica with Fleets & Fuels follow-up